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FiveThirtyEight Gets it Wrong on Venezuela

FiveThirtyEight.com features Venezuelan economy

Nate Silver, who became famous for his use of polling data to accurately project U.S. elections, launched a new blog – FiveThirtyEight.com last month.  It’s been off to a rough start, Paul Krugman wrote soon after its launch, “[S]loppy and casual opining with a bit of data used, as the old saying goes, the way a drunkard uses a lamppost — for support, not illumination.” I leave it to the reader to decide whether the FiveThirtyEight article on March 17 by Dorothy Kronick on Venezuela fits this description.

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Venezuela: The Left, Context, Prices and the Market

Roland Denis

How shall we put today’s revolutionary left in Venezuela into context?

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Venezuela's New Currency Exchange System Based on “Supply and Demand”

Currency controls have been in place in Venezuela since 2003 (Venezuelanalaysis)

A third currency exchange system has been introduced in Venezuela in efforts to stabilise the value of the bolivar, called Sicad II, which will facilitate daily currency auctions at prices determined by “supply and demand”, according to Vice President for the Economic Area Rafael Ramirez.

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Venezuelan Government to “Establish New Economic Order” Next Year after 56.2% Inflation in 2013

A BCV graph showing the relationship between the scarcity index and various key political events; the oil lock out, the 2007 ref

Inflation in Venezuela was high in November, but has also consistently decelerated since October. Nevertheless, President Nicolas Maduro said that next year the government will “revise” key aspects of the economy in order guarantee that it is “at the service of the people”.

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Venezuela's Petrol Price Debate

33% of petrol consumed in Venezuela is 95 octane petrol, the most expensive to produce, according to minister Ramirez (archive)

Though the debate around petrol prices proposed by the vice-president last week is only just getting started, Venezuelanalysis presents here a taste of the different perspectives already being argued.

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Venezuela Led Region in Poverty Reduction in 2012, ECLAC Says

(Carlos Vera/ECLAC)

ECLAC’s new “Social Panorama of Latin America” report notes that Venezuela and Ecuador led the region in decreasing poverty in 2012.

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Following Huge Car Industry Speculation in Venezuela, Maduro Permits Dollar Car Import Bank Accounts

Maduro signing decree 625 last night (Prensa Presidencial)

From today, Venezuelan citizens and residents who have legally acquired dollars will be able to open foreign currency accounts in public Venezuelan banks. They will also be able to use those accounts to purchase cars overseas, following a decree that President Nicolas Maduro signed yesterday.

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Venezuela Tightens State Control Over Its Economy (Video)

Venezuelanalysis.com founder Greg Wilpert examines Venezuela’s current difficult economic situation, and the government’s response to deal with this.

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AULA Blog on Venezuela Gets It Wrong

(referential image / dragonart)

On Monday, October 21, the AULA blog published by the Center for Latin American and Latino Studies at American University had a post describing “[t]he dire state of the economy” in Venezuela that contained several errors.

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Venezuela to Pump US$900 million into Economy Through Auctions

The Venezuelan government is to pump an extra US$900 million into the economy through an auction system in order to satisfy fore

The Venezuelan government is to pump an extra US$900 million into the economy through an auction system in order to satisfy foreign currency demand and reduce the value of the black market dollar.

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