Venezuela’s President Chavez would Win 2012 Elections, Says Poll

Mérida, April 4^th 2011 (Venezuelanalysis.com) – According to the latest GIS XXI survey, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has a support level of 51%, and there are low levels of support for the performance of both opposition, and pro-government legislators.

The survey, conducted by the pro-government leaning company with 2,500 people from 11 to 17 of March also found that 62% of those polled had a negative assessment of the opposition in the National Assembly.  After a boycott of elections in 2005, the opposition participated in last year’s elections, and since January has a sizable, but not a majority, share of seats in the parliament.

According to the survey’s report, those who “don’t support the Bolivarian Revolution had large expectations for the opposition entering the National Assembly, but three months since the start of sittings, the right doesn’t have complete support in the parliament, nor in national life”. The 62%, however, broken down into the various answers, had 35% of those polled responding “very bad or bad” and 27% responding “regular”.

Responding to the question, “How would you classify the general performance of the opposition over the last year?” 72% responded “regular, bad, or very bad”, with the middle class and youth (aged 18 to 29) being the most critical.

Results for the performance of the PSUV in parliament were close to that of the opposition, with 52% critical of it; 31% rating it as “very bad or bad” and 21% rating it as regular. Highest approval levels were among the youth and among the poorer classes. 37% of respondents rated the PSUV’s performance as “very good or good” compared to 25% for the opposition.

68% of respondents supported the new move where all ministers presented reports to the National Assembly of what they accomplished in the previous year and a similar number, 76%, felt that “no matter what side they are on, all legislators are more interested in winning elections than in solving problems”.

46% also said the left talk about achievements that aren’t real, and 40% said the behaviour of the opposition shows that it doesn’t have anything to offer the country.

Director of GIS XXI, Jesse Chacon, commenting on the support for President Chavez, said it rose to 54% in December, possibly due to his attention to those affected by the torrential rains at the time.

“I think if Chavez maintains the growth [of support] that he has registered since the first part of last year, he’ll end the year with over 55%, which would be a good achievement for any president anywhere in the world who has been governing for over twelve years,” Chacon said.

However, according to Chacon, such an increase in support would also depend on social achievements, such as housing construction, road repair, electricity service, the cost of living, and food supply.

If Venezuelans were to vote now, 42% would vote for Chavez, and 23% for the opposition. 35% would abstain, or declined to answer the survey question.  This would then translate to 65% participation- roughly what participation levels have been in recent Venezuelan elections, and 64.6% would vote for Chavez and 35.4% for the opposition.