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Opinion and Analysis: International | Politics

Study of Polls Shows a Clear Lead for Hugo Chavez in Venezuela's Presidential Election Race

With just two months to go until Venezuela’s presidential elections on 7 October, a study of recent opinion polls has shown a clear lead for Hugo Chavez over his main rival Henrique Capriles Radonski.

The study shows Hugo Chavez has a lead of between 15-27% in each of the 8 polls examined (see table below).

The study is based on all polls published in July by the major polling companies that carry out polls in Venezuela (with data collected in the last week of June and during July 2012).

It includes pollsters that had some of the most accurate final predictions for the two previous elections that determined whether Hugo Chavez would be Venezuela’s President. These include: Consultores 30-11 and Hinterlaces (2006 Presidential elections) and Datanalisis (2004 Recall Referendum).

The strong lead for Hugo Chavez in these polls is consistent with the ongoing high satisfaction rating for his government which a range of polls have shown is regularly around 60%.

Commenting on the study carried out by the Venezuela Solidarity Campaign, Dr Francisco Dominguez, VSC Secretary, said:

This study clearly shows that Hugo Chavez has a strong lead in the polls.

Whilst the campaign of Henrique Capriles Radonski has sought to confuse the issue by claiming that the race is close, this is contradicted by the data coming out from the major polling companies.

This lead ought to be reflected in the medias coverage of the election. It certainly would be inaccurate for media coverage to claim that the race currently appears to be close.

Voting intention (%)  Polls July 2012

Pollster

Sample date

Sample size

Support for Hugo Chavez

Support for Henrique Capriles Radonski

Lead for Hugo Chavez

Note

Consultores 30-11

16-18 July

3210

58.6

31.3

27.3

Support for the two candidates does not add up to 100% as the survey includes dont knows/would not says

International Consulting Services

14 - 18 July

-

62.6

37.4

25.2

Results after excluding dont knows/would not says

International Consulting Services *

14 - 18 July

-

57.2

34.1

23.1

1. Same sample as above poll.

2. This version includes dont knows/would not says

Datanalisis

14-23 June

1300

46.1

30.8

15.3

Support for the two candidates does not add up to 100% as the survey includes dont knows/would not says

IVAD

5-15 July

1200

52.3

32

20.3

Support for the two candidates does not add up to 100% as the survey includes dont knows/would not says

Hinterlaces

4-14 July

1500

61

39

22

Results after excluding dont knows/would not says

International Consulting Services

23-27 June

2200

59.1

33.9

25.2

Support for the two candidates does not add up to 100% as the survey includes dont knows/would not says

Hinterlaces

16-24 June

1300

52

31

21

Support for the two candidates does not add up to 100% as the survey includes dont knows/would not says

Notes

1.The survey of the polls was carried out by the Venezuela Solidarity Campaign from 5-6 August.

2.In previous presidential elections Hugo Chavez has won with the following results:

2006: 63%: 37%

2000: 60%: 38%

1998: 56%:40%

Hugo Chavez also won a referendum on whether his term of office should be terminated early in 2004 by a margin of 59%:41%