Chávez Sweeps Away Budget Predictions of Venezuela’s Opposition

The so called "economic
adjustment package" announced by President Chávez on Saturday was
predicted by the opposition media to look something like this:

• Devaluation of the local currency, the Bolivar by some 40%
• A 400% increase in the price of gasoline
• 28% tax on the purchase of new vehicles
• 25% increase in gas and electricity prices
• Freezing of the minimum wage
• Cutting social programs
• Reintroduction of the tax on all bank transactions
• An increase of 10% in VAT (purchase tax) taking it up to 19%

In other words, the opposition
predicted a traditional neoliberal package of measures designed to
shore up government coffers and stop the country "falling off the
cliff" at the expense of the public. Not surprisingly, the measures
they predicted would have followed a capitalist model.

In Venezuela the word "package"
harkens back to the 1989 economic package imposed by the then Pérez
government on February 27th of that year which sparked countrywide
riots and looting and almost overthrew the regime. Thousands were
slaughtered in the streets as the Pérez government used fully armed
troops to quell the rioting and protect the sacred cow of private
property.

The opposition was hoping for
something similar to take place and get rid of the president they love
to hate. Their visceral, anti-government, private media campaign,
predicting economic "crisis" and "catastrophe", began after the fall in
the oil price began in July 2008. They have demonstrated time and again
their willingness to destroy their own country in order to regain
control of whatever remains.

It also has to be said that the
economists based in the opposition camp can think no further than
neoliberal, market based policies when considering the above list. It
is all they know and they have never learned to think outside their
capitalist box.

1 Bolivar Fuerte

All the predictions by the
opposition and the media arm were swept away in the one hour broadcast
when a self-assured Chávez addressed the nation on Saturday. He pointed
the finger at capitalism and neoliberalism as the cause of the world's
economic woes and asked President Obama to join him on the "socialist
path".

President Chávez introduced the following measures as a mantle of protection against the collapsing global economy:

1. Budget: The
   2009 national budget in Venezuela will be cut by 6.7% from
   approximately 167 billion bolivares to 156 billion (US$77.7 billion to
   US$72.6 billion).

   The original budget was based on an oil
   price of $60/barrel when the price of oil was well over US$100/barrel
   last year. This newly adjusted budget will be based on average of
   US$40/barrel for 2009. This is far more feasible within the current
   economic context of global recession/depression.

2. Increase in taxes: To make up
   the projected shortfall of approximately US$17 billion in oil revenues
   Chávez is raising the VAT (value added tax/sales tax) from 9% to 12%.

3. Increased government borrowing: Government borrowing in 2009 will be increased from 12 billion bolivares to 34 billion.

   It
   is important to note that the total Venezuela debt represents only
   13.6% of GDP. Compare this to the U.S. national debt which represents
   70%+ of GDP. Borrowing a further 22 billion bolivares (about US$10
   billion) is perfectly manageable and sound economic policy. The
   remaining US$7 billion shortfall will come from the 3% increase in VAT.

4. Cuts in government spending: The
   recent bailout packages in the U.S. left $billions in the pockets of
   the corporate thieves who stole the U.S. economy and hundreds of
   millions more in the electoral "war chests" of politicians who support
   the the bailouts for future re-election campaigns.

   President
   Chávez is doing the opposite. He is eliminating certain "luxury
   spending" by the government. Please note that in scale and purpose,
   this "luxury spending" cannot compare with the continuing waste of
   taxpayer funds by many corrupt politicians in Washington. On Saturday,
   President Chávez explained this cost-cutting measure:

   "We
   are preparing a decree to eliminate luxury costs – the acquiring of
   executive vehicles, redecorating, real estate, new headquarters,
   promotional material and unnecessary publicity, corporate gifts."

5. Priority to Social Programs:
   Ever since the price of oil began dropping last year, big government
   media hammers from the NYT and BBC to the opposition media here in
   Venezuela have been pounding away at their forecasts that Chavez' would
   have to cut social spending, thus losing his electoral base among the
   poor. It was wishful thinking on their part. Besides reducing
   unnecessary "luxury" expenditure in all ministries, the new policy
   gives priority to all social programs which remain unaffected by these
   reforms and the reduction in the national budget. For a socialist
   oriented economy, social programs are an absolute priority. Laughably,
   the lame response of the opposition is that Chávez is "buying votes"
   with social programs. It's a throwaway answer. Making it a human right
   and constitutional guarantee for every citizen to have basic foods, a
   decent education and housing and quality health care is not "buying
   votes". Rather, it is an economy in which the government is giving the
   people what they demand in exchange for their vote.

6. Increase in Minimum Wage:
   Chávez also announced a 20% increase in the minimum wage to be awarded
   in two tranches of 10% – May 1st and September 1st. He also confirmed
   the nationalization of the Banco de Venezuela – Santander Group from
   Spain, at a price reflecting the new economic reality, so as to
   strengthen the government's banking network.

7. No reduction in dollars for Venezuelans:
   Venezuela limits the numbers of dollars available to its citizens who
   travel abroad or make internet purchases. This limit is designed to
   curtail capital flight. In his address to the nation, Chávez did not
   mention further reduction in dollars to the general public. Prior to
   Chávez' address to the nation, on their TV shows and print media, the
   opposition had been predicting that the government would reduce these
   dollar amounts, hoping to whip up the ire of the middle classes.

Opposition predictions laid to rest

The list of predictions by
opposition economists, who have got virtually nothing right in economic
terms since 2002, was left in its rightful place in the wastebasket
of media fiction.

All the talk about a terminal
crisis in the Venezuelan economy were laid to rest along with these
predictions and just after the president's address, the two economists
interviewed by Globovision were lost for words. They are
still incapable of thinking "outside of the box" and will likely
continue espousing the "free market mantra" which has virtually doomed
the capitalist system, or at least put it on hold for the next couple
of decades.

Inflation

In nearly every report on the
Venezuelan economy, the capitalist media in the U.S. and Europe have
made 2 factors the centerpiece of their dire predictions of a collapsed
Venezuelan economy and thus, the ouster of President Chávez: (1) the
drop in the price of oil and (2) "runaway inflation". Inflation is the
main concern for the foreseeable future in Venezuela. Elevated
inflation has always been the first cousin of booming economies like
that of Venezuela. It is a problem that does not go away until those
economies settle down and measures are taken to control rising prices.
Gradually, the Venezuelan economy will reach equilibrium and certain
measures will be taken by the government. For example, a clampdown on
price manipulation by hoarders of food and speculators can be expected
in 2009. Hopefully some of the perpetrators will be jailed as an
example to others.

If these measures prove to be
insufficient – which is highly unlikely unless the oil price
falls below US$30/barrel for many months – Chávez still has a box
replete with tools he can use to generate more revenue and cut more
costs, if necessary.

Chávez Administration Vindicated:
Chávez and his ministers have been totally vindicated by their economic
policies since 2003, after day-to-day attacks by "experts" who continue
to believe in the totally discredited US system. These policies kept
the Venezuelan economy at a safe distance from the excesses and greed
of the commercial banks, insurance companies and Wall Street crooks
which triggered the collapse of the financial system.

Politically, this is another
triumph for Chávez which comes just after his successful referendum
campaign to remove the constricting, undemocratic term limits on all
elected officials on February 15th.

As
usual, constructive criticism has degenerated into insults by
opposition commentators and politicians. Will they never learn from
their mistakes? Given their record, they are more likely to continue
digging their hole deeper, rather than climbing out of it to face and
accept new realities. But the Bolivarian Revolution continues to grow
in it's depth and breadth among the majority of the people in Venezuela. 

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