Mérida, October 4th 2011 (Venezuelanalysis.com) –Chavez’s popularity this month was 58.9% according to opposition leaning poll company Datanalisis. Furthermore, according to GIS XXI, 86% of the population admires how he has handled his illness and 45.7% said Chavez’s health hadn’t affected the national political situation.
According to the president of Datanalisis, Luis Vicente, the popularity statistic is an increase of over 10%, from 48.6% in July this year.
Opposition press attribute the increased popularity to President Hugo Chavez’s battle with cancer, and Vicente said it was thanks, in part, to the “management of information” of the government around Chavez’s health.
The Datanalysis survey was conducted in September at a national level with a sample of 1,300 people, an error margin of 2.7%, according to the poll company, and financed by companies and individuals.
GIS XXI, the independent Venezuelan poll company which tends to favour the government but to also have more accurate results in terms of election outcome predictions, also conducted a poll evaluating the “general situation in the country” and the president’s popularity.
According to the GIS XXI results, 59% of respondents classified Chavez’s management over the last year as very good or good, and 22% as neither good nor bad, or regular. GIS XXI conducts these polls monthly, and the classification of very good or good has steadily increased from February, when it was 50.3%.
An even 50% of the population thought the performance of the opposition has been bad or very bad, an increase from 41.4% in April this year.
If there were a presidentialelection tomorrow, 57% said they would vote for Chavez, 22% for the opposition, and 10% said it would depend on the candidate. 5% said they wouldn’t vote. The sectors with the highest percentage that would vote for Chavez are males (2.5% more than females), youth (1.7% higher) and the poorest sectors, with category E (the poorest) at 67.8% and category AB (the richest) at 24.3%.
When asked if Chavez’s health changed the political situation in the country, 45.7% said no, it doesn’t change anything (up from 36.3% in July), and 22.3% said it changes the political situation a lot (down from 30.4% in July). Chavez returned to Venezuela from Cuba, in early July days after he publically announced that he had cancer and was receiving treatment for it.
63.0% felt the news about Chavez’s cancer had served to unite his supporters. 40% also felt the news had served to unite the opposition, and 32% felt it had divided them.
When asked if they would vote for a Chavez supporter, if the president himself could not stand, 48.1% said yes, 22.0% said they would vote for the opposition, and 17.9% said it would depend on the candidates.
86% of those surveyed felt it was “admirable” how Chavez has handled his illness. 59% disagreed that he should retire because of his health complications, and 33% agreed.
According to the poll, insecurity, then inflation and unemployment continue to be the most serious problems in the country.
The GIS XXI poll involved 2500 interviews conducted around the country, proportionate to population size in each state, with an error margin of 2.0% and carried out during August.