Venezuela’s Legislative and Regional Elections: A Unified Government Faces a Divided Opposition
Ten months after the presidential elections that resulted in Nicolás Maduro securing a new term, the pro-government political forces are gearing up to face an opposition that remains divided, with its leading figures at odds with one another.
With the electoral campaign barely underway, multiple surveys and on-the-ground observations consistently forecast a low voter turnout for the elections set for Sunday, May 25. These contests will select 277 members of the National Assembly (unicameral parliament), 24 state governors, and members of regional legislative councils.
The government presents a united front
The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and its allied organizations have developed proposals tailored to each electoral district and have already launched a nationwide campaign under the slogan “Gente que resuelve” [“People who solve problems”].
The primary challenge facing the ruling coalition remains the country’s economic situation. Although there has been a notable recovery compared to the disastrous second half of the previous decade, ominous clouds have reemerged on the horizon, driven by fears of a return to the worst times of blockades and maximum pressure from the United States.
While some economic stability has been maintained, it is now threatened by new inflationary flares and a significant rise in the unofficial dollar exchange rate, which has increasingly become the de facto benchmark for all commercial transactions.
Discontent with the national government is intensified by serious issues with public services, particularly electricity and cooking gas, which generate particular frustration for residents in the interior regions of the country.
Another weakness of the government’s electoral strategy lies in candidate selection. In March, backed by a major propaganda effort, the PSUV urged its grassroots to nominate potential candidates for all the positions up for grabs on May 25. However, many of those favored in what was essentially a primary process did not end up on the official ballot. Instead, numerous less popular leaders, but with ties to the inner circles of power within the PSUV, are now listed as candidates.
“I wouldn’t be worried if there were protests, but what we’re seeing is a very telling silence,” a party official privately remarked about his early contacts with party militants during the campaign that started on April 29. “I wouldn’t be surprised if this silence results in abstention or votes against us. It’s something we’ve faced before.”
This official refers to events from 2007, when Chavismo lost a constitutional reform referendum, and the much more decisive defeat in 2015, when the opposition won the legislative elections.
Beyond these concerns, the PSUV leadership relies on three key advantages:
- The highly efficient PSUV electoral machinery, which has proven resilient in far more challenging circumstances than the current ones.
- The weakness of the opposition.
- The renewed enthusiasm of Chavista supporters to exercise their right to vote, a sentiment strengthened in the months following July 28 through two communal consultations on local state-funded projects and the election of peace judges.
Jorge Rodríguez, the PSUV Vice President for Electoral Affairs, also foresees a highly symbolic victory: the participation of more than 7,000 candidates nationwide, representing 53 political organizations, with 11 national candidate lists for the AN, and a wide range of gubernatorial candidate choices in each state.
“We’ve brought many into the fold of democracy and voting,” said Rodríguez, who has served as Parliament president since 2021. “We’re especially proud to see many former abstainers—who previously condemned participation in elections—now changing their stance. They are now running as candidates.”
Rodríguez and other senior PSUV leaders assert that abstention will be overcome, and that the people will once again demonstrate their commitment to democracy by voting in large numbers.
Radical opposition spokespeople are betting on extremely low participation to claim a political victory. In contrast, those taking part in the elections are repeatedly urging the public to vote as the most effective form of protest.
Some surveys connected to the extreme right predict a complete voter turnout failure, while others—more balanced—initially estimate participation at around 33%, suggesting that the trend is starting to rise. They believe turnout could exceed 45%, a figure more consistent with the country’s historical voting patterns in this type of election.
A deep division and fatal fragmentation
The opposition enters this electoral race split into two primary camps: one that has registered to participate in the elections, and another that has called for abstention.
The abstentionist faction is led by far-right figure María Corina Machado, who bases her stance on allegations of electoral fraud made following the July 28 presidential elections. She claims that the winner was candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, but that the government—supported by the electoral and judicial branches—denied him victory.
Machado, who portrays herself as a clandestine leader, argues that participating in the legislative and regional elections would mean surrendering the fraud claims, as it would lend legitimacy to the National Electoral Council (CNE) she claims was behind the electoral fixing.
In July 2024, opposition forces largely united for the elections, successfully polarizing the race between Maduro and González Urrutia, while other opposition candidates garnered only minor vote shares. The CNE declared Maduro the winner, claiming that its data transmission systems and website had been targeted by repeated, precise cyberattacks that nearly compromised the process.
The most radical wing of the opposition, led by Machado, briefly ignited a wave of violent episodes on July 29 and 30, which the government managed to suppress. These protests resulted in 25 fatalities and over 2,000 arrests related to the unrest.
Although Maduro was declared the winner by the CNE, he promptly referred to the Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) for a review of the results. The court upheld the CNE’s declared outcome, and opposition representatives did not appear before the TSJ to present evidence of alleged fraud.
The faction of the opposition that has chosen to register candidates for the May elections continues to publicly uphold the broad denunciations of electoral fraud concerning the presidential vote. However, their spokespeople argue that abstaining at this point would effectively hand over all legislative and regional executive powers to the government.
They contend that this approach is a familiar, yet costly, strategy. In 2005, when legislative elections were imminent, opposition leaders—presumably following instructions from the US State Department—chose to boycott the vote. Their goal was to discredit the newly elected National Assembly and provoke a political crisis capable of overthrowing Hugo Chávez’s government. Instead, the boycott resulted in the pro-government parties securing 100% of the seats, enabling them to pass laws unopposed.
The same pattern emerged in 2018 during the presidential elections, when major opposition groups decided to abstain from fielding candidates—only three small opposition parties participated—facilitating Maduro’s first re-election despite the country’s severe economic and social crises.
In 2020, during the legislative elections, a significant portion of the opposition leadership again decided not to appear on the ballot. Only parties outside the main alliance participated, allowing the government to secure a broad parliamentary majority since January 2021.
“Abstaining is like shooting yourself in the foot, putting duct tape over your mouth, tying your own hands,” often remarks Claudio Fermín, a moderate opposition figure who was a presidential candidate last year. His party, Soluciones para Venezuela, has joined forces with other small parties to present candidates for both the National Assembly and governorships.
The rivalry between the two opposition factions is now more intense than their opposition to the government. Abstentionists label those who registered as candidates as traitors and have long used the term “alacranes” (scorpions) to refer to alleged government collaborators.
Opposition analyst Carlos Raúl Hernández humorously observes that “now there are scorpions and neo-scorpions,” since many who once called electoral supporters scorpions have abandoned their radical stance to now run as candidates themselves.
Hernández summarizes the pre-electoral landscape bluntly: “The opposition is self-dissolving because of the abstentionists’ zeal; those who participate aren’t forming alliances but each running individually, leaving the opposition fragmented. And how might the government react? They’re happy, waiting peacefully and drinking tea.”
Clodovaldo Hernández is a journalist and political analyst with experience in higher education. He won the National Journalism Prize (Opinion category) in 2002. He is the author of the books Reinventario (poetry and short stories) De genios y de figuras (journalistic profiles) and Esa larga, infinita distancia (novel).
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelan editorial staff.
Translated by Venezuelanalysis.