The Venezuelan Opposition’s Doomsday Calendar

Venezuela is a place where no one knows what is going to happen. Yet that never stops people from making up all sorts of scenarios, theories and predictions.
After the July 2024 presidential contest, many fell into this endless speculation loop: what was going to happen next? While Chavismo to a large extent foresaw Nicolás Maduro taking office for a new six-year term, a sector of the opposition was adamant that “between now and the swearing-in, something has to happen.”
Well, life happened. Most Venezuelans, following a few days of violent protests, extensive property damage and hundreds of arrests, went back to work. Months later, we upheld our right to enjoy the holiday season.
Then, another date with a big red circle on the calendar approached: the January 10 presidential inauguration. All of a sudden, no one wanted to do anything. “Shall we go to the beach?” “After the 10th.” “Did you go to the doctor?” “After the 10th.” “Did you quit your job?” “After the 10th.”
There was so much hype, though without any concrete elements to back it up, that many businesses had their post-holiday break run until after January 10. Others closed down for a few days before the date, just in case…
The hardline opposition faction led by María Corina Machado, after months of dormancy and cryptic messages, was back with a messianic tone, announcing the impending judgment day. Though no one really knew if they should expect Machado, (former candidate) Edmundo González, (mercenary contractor) Erik Prince, the Venezuelan armed forces or God himself.
In this day and age, and in Venezuela even more so, social media lends itself to creating this frenzied atmosphere. A short circuit in a Guárico military base became an uprising. Internet amateurs kept reporting nearby flights in real-time. Instant experts read facial cues from Maduro, Diosdado Cabello and others on TV to predict the future.
By January 9 the illusions had faded: Machado did not manage to mobilize any significant support and ended up staging, and quite incompetently at that, an attack and supposed arrest. González, for his part, stayed in the Dominican Republic. And Prince suddenly knows nothing about the million-plus dollars collected in his Venezuela invasion fundraiser. He alleges the funds were lost after Bank of America closed his bank accounts. Finally, the Venezuelan armed forces (FANB) reiterated their support for the Maduro government.
On January 11 I went to the gym and noticed that the hope, at least for the most extremist and fanatical opposition supporters, had been re-scheduled. “The big decisions are coming on the 20th when Trump takes office” or “This will not last three more months,” they said while lifting weights or running on treadmills.
Even so, there they were exercising, because life goes on. Deep down, even most of those who want a change of government want that to happen in such a way that will allow their lives to carry on peacefully. The ones who dream about the Marines landing on these shores are the idiots who believe they will not be affected.
In a way, that is one of the main obstacles today for the hardline opposition: after some very tough years, the most recent period has ushered in a certain economic recovery/stability. We have discovered once again the satisfaction of seeing food on market shelves and medicine at pharmacies without endless queues or needing to sell a non-vital organ. We are now much more at the mercy of the “market,” but that is another story. The key is that we do not want to go back. This helps explain the lack of support for Machado’s insurrectionary claims amidst the traditional opposition base. Even they understand that a scenario of “regime change” by force could only lead to disaster.
Some are celebrating that Trump brought up the possibility of shutting down oil purchases from Venezuela but nearly everyone knows that a measure like this, even if presented as a blow against the government, will end up hurting the people. We went through this when the US imposed an oil embargo in 2019 (it is still in force) and the nation’s revenues came crashing down.
At the same time, the Maduro administration is wise enough to set and impose the political agenda. As a result, the country will go to the polls on April 27 for parliamentary and regional elections. In this process, all parties and candidates will be required to sign a document with a “commitment to accept all developments concerning the election” and “the published results.”
This is bound to cause another split in opposition ranks. On one side stand those who wish to participate in the process and build a political base one step at a time. There are also those with a lot at stake, like Manuel Rosales, a former presidential candidate who is currently Zulia governor for a second time and wants to run for reelection.
On the other camp stand the figures and forces that wish to stick to Machado’s direction after the far-right leader decreed that there should be no participation in any election in the wake of the July 28 contest because that would mean “undermining the vote and not defending it.” This is the same abstention and “all or nothing” strategy we witnessed a few years ago. First as tragedy, then as farce.
Furthermore, with Trump unleashing so many attacks against Latin America in just the first week of his new term, Maduro scores points with his calls for regional unity against such a belligerent US government.
Our neighbors, for example, suddenly have bigger problems and no longer talk about us. Brazil just received the first batch of immigrants deported by the Trump administration. They were flown to the country handcuffed and shackled and reported all sorts of abuse and degrading treatment that they had been put through.
Colombia lived through a high-stakes impasse, with threats of sanctions and tariffs on social media, before accepting the deportation flights, so long as the people aboard are treated with dignity.
Venezuela, in turn, offers solidarity to its closest neighbors. We know all about dealing with dirty tricks from the North. The point is that the radical opposition’s stance, placing all its hopes on Trump, becomes more extremist with every passing day.
Perhaps, one way or another, the wishes of far-right Venezuelans will come to pass but without producing the results they desire. In the meantime, life continues and the struggle continues.
Jessica Dos Santos is a Venezuelan university professor, journalist and writer whose work has appeared in outlets such as RT, Épale CCS magazine and Investig’Action. She is the author of the book “Caracas en Alpargatas” (2018). She’s won the Aníbal Nazoa Journalism Prize in 2014 and received honorable mentions in the Simón Bolívar National Journalism prize in 2016 and 2018.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.
Translated by Venezuelanalysis.