The ‘Same Old’ Path and the ‘Dangerous’ One

When Hugo Chávez first won the presidency I was only 9 years old. Yet I vividly remember his victory, and even more so the epic feeling around his campaign.

At the time, I lived at the center of Caracas, a mere eight blocks from Miraflores Presidential Palace, and from my window I once saw Chávez’s main rival, Henrique Salas Romer, pass through on “Frijolito,” a white horse that supposedly resembled the one ridden by independence hero Simón Bolívar. Not the most inspiring antics…

Meanwhile, on the east side of town, Irene Sáenz, a dashing former Miss Venezuela and Miss Universe, tried to use the success of her term as mayor of the middle-class Chacao municipality as a platform. However, she made the fatal mistake of joining forces with the COPEI Social Christians and that was the end of a promising political career.

Either way, neither Sáenz nor Salas Romer were a match for the hurricane that Chávez represented. “We are a popular avalanche that will not be stopped!” he shouted after his triumph was announced in December 1998.

These were times when politics was really genuine. I recall that many Chávez sympathizers started donning a red beret, the symbol of the paratrooper battalion that spearheaded the failed insurrection of February 4, 1992. Chávez, then a young lieutenant, won plaudits by taking responsibility and exposing the rotten nature of the Fourth Republic.

Once in power, Chavismo produced campaigns that fascinated all those who took an interest in political communication. With few resources and plenty of creativity, dedicated activists created songs, slogans and lots more to drive the project forward. I had the good fortune of working with the people behind some of the greatest hits.

Even the opposition had its inspired moments, like the memorable “the devil has always been red” motto during the 2004 recall referendum, though it was not enough as the Venezuelan people showed their overwhelming support for the Revolution.

Not just that, there was a struggle between traditional media and new communicational initiatives that sprung up with Chávez, as well as a constant effort to find novel ways to reach the people, to spur popular protagonism.

Nowadays, 25 years and more than 30 electoral processes later, a lot has changed. For these upcoming July 28 presidential elections, all candidates started their campaigns way before the dates established by electoral authorities and no one batted an eyelid. Social media now plays a crucial role as well. But at the center of it, there is a lot of noise and emphasis on superficial aspects (e.g. ensuring the rallies look impressive on camera), very little concern for the actual message.

The campaign discourses sound worn out too. Maduro rails against a “decrepit old specter” of capitalism, clearly talking about Edmundo González, whose main problem is not his age but rather his role as a puppet. On the other side, María Corina Machado promises to jail (or worse…) the “guilty ones” in reference to the government. 

Both are more focused on sparking fear in case they lose. Maduro has warned of a doomsday scenario should the far-right come to power. Machado & co. threaten that the economy will hurt again, that there will be international isolation and more migration.

It’s a familiar script whereby the opposition does not promote its candidate and just calls on supporters to vote “against Chavismo,” the rest will be figured out later. There is no concrete proposal for the country. Or at least, one that they dare present publicly that does not promise all sorts of structural adjustments.

Maduro’s camp has brought up the damage wrought by US-led sanctions whenever people complain of water, electricity or cooking gas shortages. The president has gone back to campaigning on the streets after years of avoiding it in the wake of the 2018 assassination attempt. And he has witnessed problems firsthand, not just public services but also roadways in poor state, fuel scarcity, lighting issues, etc., and demanded “immediate solutions” from his ministers even if the issues require long-term plans.

The opposition, or Machado rather, has also taken to the streets. She has not emulated Salas Romer’s white horse antics, but her supporters assure that she moves like a Targaryen on a dragon. Yes, that’s how ridiculous it sounds…

How can it not be ridiculous when this is a woman playing ventriloquist and carrying around a poster of the actual candidate Edmundo González? Every now and then she goes off-script and talks of what she’ll do “when she’s president…” which is always little more than “bring freedom.” González said in an interview that Machado can have “whatever role she desires” in government, which does not inspire a lot of confidence.

When González is forced to take part, it’s impossible to hide the obvious: he has trouble getting around, even more so climbing on stages. A flu knocked him out to the point of having to suspend his participation in the campaign a mere 10 days before the election.

In his videos and speeches, he just echoes whatever Machado says and carries a distinct “get me out of here” look in his eyes. I can’t help but remember former President Rafael Caldera in the 1990s when he fell asleep during televised broadcasts and the camera crew made no effort to spare his blushes.

Unlike the novel Chávez campaigns, the present ones seem uninspired. Not just that, but one could have thought this was a time for austere and transparent campaigns. But no, it’s not.

Right-wing opinion makers point out that the government campaign is drawing from public funds, but completely ignore the resources stolen in recent years, ever since this ludicrous “interim government” sprung up to take over resources that have financed political activities… and coup attempts.

All things considered, people are not enthused, at least outside echo chambers. There are opinion polls by the dozen, favoring whoever commissioned them, and everyone does so. Still, they have something in common, many respondents either don’t know or refuse to disclose who they are voting for. There is uncertainty in the air and it’s palpable.

If Maduro wins, people are bracing for a tightening of sanctions, the strangling of the economy, and international disputes, especially taking into account Donald Trump’s more than likely victory in November against an opponent that looks in even worse shape than Edmundo González. With that in mind, Chavista bases maintain their rebelliousness against an empire that looks to subjugate them.

If González wins, it will mark the arrival of the far-right. No matter how much he speaks of peace, dialogue, orderly transition, etc., his partner in crime (Machado) immediately gives away that it will not be the case. And our region has plenty of precedents when it comes to repression and persecution against popular movements.

As I wrap up this column, I go back to the forgotten Irene Sáenz and something she said in that history-changing 1998 campaign. “Why are we forced to choose between the dangerous path and the same old path? A new generation should have its turn.”

Back then, the right was the “same old” and Chávez was the “danger.” He did prove to be a danger for elites and global superpowers, in a good sense.

Today, the government, after 25 years in power, has accumulated wear and tear and needs a giant effort to promise “transformations.” Like it or not, it has become the “same old.” 

But on the other side the “dangerous” option is truly dangerous: the rise of the far-right under the sheep’s wool of a harmless old man and with a thirst for revenge.

Jessica Dos Santos is a Venezuelan university professor, journalist and writer whose work has appeared in outlets such as RT, Épale CCS magazine and Investig’Action. She is the author of the book “Caracas en Alpargatas” (2018). She’s won the Aníbal Nazoa Journalism Prize in 2014 and received honorable mentions in the Simón Bolívar National Journalism prize in 2016 and 2018.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.

Translated by Venezuelanalysis.