Venezuela’s 2024 Presidential Elections: All You Need to Know

This coming Sunday, Venezuelans will head to the polls for crucial presidential elections.

Venezuelanalysis offers a guide about the process, the candidates, international observation, media coverage and lots more.

What is at stake?

Venezuela’s presidential elections are a single-round process won by plurality: whichever candidate gets the most votes wins. At stake is the next six-year presidential mandate, beginning on January 10, 2025, and ending on January 9, 2031.

How was the date picked?

In contrast to what some corporate media outlets posit, the holding of the election was not a product of the October 2023 Barbados Agreement between the government and the US-backed opposition. The Venezuelan Constitution stipulates that it be held this year and it was never in doubt. 

The government and opposition did agree to propose to electoral authorities that the contest be held in the second half of 2024. In the end, the dialogue process was extended to other political forces and civil society actors, who proposed several possibilities. The National Electoral Council (CNE) picked July 28.

Who votes?

According to the CNE’s registry published in early July, there are 21,392,464 people eligible to vote on July 28. However, given recent migration, the actual total is expected to be 3-4 million below that. In addition, a convoluted registration process coupled with Western countries that do not recognize the Venezuelan government (i.e. there are no diplomatic relations)  meant that only 69 thousand Venezuelans abroad are eligible to participate this coming Sunday.

The CNE has set up 16,025 polling stations across the country, which can have one or more voting booths.

Who is on the ballot?

There are ten candidates on the ballot, but it is really a two-horse race.

Incumbent Nicolás Maduro is running for a third term. His proposed political project centers on deepening “transformations” under the Bolivarian Process, and he has touted a stable and growing economy in the face of crushing US sanctions. On the international sphere, the 61-year-old Maduro is an advocate for a multipolar world, has openly lobbied for Venezuela to join BRICS and is an unconditional supporter of the Palestinian cause. He is backed by the Socialist Party (PSUV) and 12 other political forces. (*) 

The main challenger is 74-year-old former diplomat Edmundo González, who was a virtually unknown figure for Venezuelans. González ended up being a consensus replacement choice for the opposition after far-right María Corina Machado saw her political disqualification upheld by the Venezuelan Supreme Court in January. Still, Machado has been the one running a campaign that has been mum on proposals, though her track records would suggest an ultra-liberal economic approach and raise fears of persecution against Chavismo.

The rest of the field includes new faces and political veterans. None project to secure many votes, though their totals might prove decisive in a tight contest between Maduro and González. See our infographic for more info on the presidential candidates.

What has the campaign looked like?

It’s all about big rallies! Maduro went back to holding street activities, having held back for several years following the 2018 assassination attempt. The president, flanked by other Chavista officials, has been leading two or even three rallies a day in recent weeks. Maduro has emphasized listening to people’s concerns and ordering solutions while additionally warning of the dangers ahead should the far-right win the presidency. The Socialist Party has its electoral machinery running in high gear to whip up the vote.

For her part, Machado has likewise held sizable rallies, with González featuring very sporadically and more focused on small gatherings and interviews. The far-right politician has sought to strike an emotional chord, promising the “reunification of Venezuelan families,” and has often carried a poster of the candidate González to instruct supporters on how to vote. Machado has complained that security forces have hampered her mobility with roadblocks while also seizing sound equipment. 

How does the voting process work?

Venezuelans go through the so-called “electoral horseshoe” to cast their votes. The first station sees voters run their fingerprints through a biometric ID machine. Once cleared, they move to the second step, where a touchscreen machine is unlocked. After picking their preferred candidate, the machine prints a paper backup confirming the choice that is to be deposited in a ballot box. The fourth and final station has voters sign and stamp their fingerprints on the electoral record.

The voting process has plenty of safeguards along the way. For example, the biometric ID stops people from voting more than once or at the wrong electoral center. The total number of votes has to match between the electronic tally and the electoral record. Furthermore, after polls close, 54 percent of voting machines are randomly chosen for an audit to compare the electronic totals with the paper tallies. This process means that the overall tendency is irreversible. In addition, participating organizations can have witnesses at polling stations, and they sign off on the final tally, which has to match the results published later on the CNE website.

Furthermore, all participating political parties take part in more than 15 audits before, during and after election day. They verify that all the bits and pieces, from the voting software to data transmission, are working properly. Finally, all organizations have to enter a unique, partial encrypted key to validate the final results.

Is there international observation?

Yes, there will be 635 electoral observers from 65 countries on the ground according to Venezuelan authorities. The organizations sending delegations include the Carter Center, the United Nations, the African Union and the Latin American Council of Electoral Experts (CEELA). Venezuela’s CNE withdrew its invitation for the European Union to send a team, citing the body’s continued sanctions policy against the Caribbean nation.

Electoral accompaniment teams visit voting centers on election day and also witness the audit processes.

What do the polls say?

Everything! Opinion polling has been notoriously unreliable in Venezuela, with pollsters constantly overestimating the opposition vote. The 2024 elections have been no exception, with several firms giving González an unassailable lead. The main difference this time around has been the emergence of other polls that predict a Maduro landslide.

With such wildly varying results, it is hard to know what to expect. Economist Francisco Rodríguez made an attempt to adjust polling predictions corrected for past biases. The method, which is not foolproof, yields a virtual tie between Maduro and González. A leaked report from Datanálisis, a pollster with a historical pro-opposition bias, predicted a narrow Maduro victory.

What are Western media outlets saying?

The corporate media has ramped up its propaganda ahead of the Venezuelan presidential elections. The narrative, however, is very familiar. Western outlets have deliberately chosen to only consider polls predicting a landslide opposition victory to claim that Maduro could only win by resorting to “fraud.” These fraud allegations are never explained or substantiated (see the above section on the voting process and safeguards).

When are results expected?

Polls are officially open from 6 am to 6 pm, though they usually stay open until later as long as there are still people queuing to vote. With the audit and totaling processes that follow, as well as the transmission of data so the CNE can centralize and compute results, the first bulletin might arrive after midnight. Subsequent bulletins updating the count, as well as the publication of results for each polling center on the CNE website, should follow.

Venezuela has no exit polls, which could lead to an anxious wait peppered with disinformation. Stay tuned to Venezuelanalysis’ rolling coverage for all the updates.

(*) The forces backing Maduro on the ballot include some leftist parties that underwent controversial judicial battles in which the Supreme Court intervened in favor of factions favoring an alliance with the PSUV over the ones willing to adopt a critical line and back a different candidate.