The next 90 Days will Define the Future of Venezuela (and South America)

Analyst José Negrón Valera looks at the military threat being built-up against Venezuela, especially right across the border in Colombia


The strongest hypothesis that seems to be haunting the minds of intelligence analysts is that the United States is about to ask Colombia to unleash a violent aggression against Venezuela to prevent South America from slipping out of their hands.

It is Washington’s opinion that a war that involves the entire region will prevent Lula from governing Brazil again and for Macri, in Argentina, to achieve his  plan to turn his country over to the International Monetary Fund.

By launching all the countries into a war adventure, an attempt is being made to quench all internal protest and reorient public opinion beyond their borders. History is plagued with similar strategies.

Reasons to worry

“These next 90 days are crucial and a great test. What happens in these three months will depend on how Venezuela dawns on January 1,” according to Diosdado Cabello, one of the most important leaders of the Bolivarian Revolution.

Does the Bolivarian leader have a substantial reason to use such a statement?

Let’s turn our attention to the tweet of the Commander of the Colombian National Army, Ricardo Gómez Nieto, who in the framework of the UNITAS naval exercises, speaks of his gratitude to the U.S. Army for its help in the “construction of a drinking water well” in the community of Rumonero.

The same “altruistic” strategy has been used by the US army in Afghanistan to consolidate itself in the territory.

In any case, the important thing to highlight is that it was precisely in this part of Guajira that Colombia established in 2015 the Task Force on Combined Medium Arms (FUTAM), equipped with armored combat weapons, artillery, infantry, logistical support and army aviation. Only by looking at the map where the “water wells” are built do we understand why Venezuela has a right to be concerned.

In addition, in recent days, political operators at the service of the aggression against Venezuela have made key statements that seem to filter the consensus reached among U.S. military leaders.

Marco Rubio, a Republican senator, revealed that “circumstances have changed” with regard to Venezuela. Rubio considers that military intervention in the country is an enormous possibility, since the government of Nicolás Maduro represents a “regional threat”, a view he shares with John Bolton, national security adviser to the White House.

On the other hand, Ramón Muchacho, spokesman for the Venezuelan opposition, declared that with regard to a military intervention against Venezuela, “at this moment there must be very intense, high level consultations between military experts, intelligence experts and some countries of the region, starting with Colombia, which after the United States is the country that has the power and the strength to act”.

Looking at the image that accompanies the State Department’s Spanish account, we can conclude that Rubio and Muchacho are not doing anything by themselves. Now, the question is not whether if they will attack the South American country but when.

A date and an excuse for the aggression

Samuel Moncada, Venezuela’s representative to the UN, has been emphatic in stating that his country is in the “most dangerous phase of the aggression. We are talking about how the migration and socio-economic issues have been manipulated to turn them into a matter of regional peace and security.”

For Moncada, Brazil’s decision to send soldiers to the border on the pretext of dealing with the issue of Venezuelan immigration, as well as the intensification of the media coverage of the same issue on the border with Colombia, only seek to build an “act or event to provoke or justify war” to declare Venezuela a failed state that generates regional destabilization.

Also, the Organization of American States (OAS) has convened the Permanent Council on September 5 to address the “migration crisis caused by the situation in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela”. Representatives of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) have been invited to the meeting.

In Moncada’s opinion, if these organizations participate, “they will be validating the beginning of hostilities with the threat of the use of military force on a “preventive” basis to defend US security”.

What should Venezuela do?

The first action is to arm the border. The recent events of sabotage detected in the state of Zulia against the electrical infrastructure are a clue to Venezuela which region where  Colombia will first attack.

In addition, it is imperative that, as is being done in the state of Táchira, the incorporation of as many militiamen as possible for the Integral Defense of the Nation be immediately activated. At the moment, the doctrine of the “war of all the people” is taking full effect.

Finally, we must understand that within the doctrine of Non-Conventional Warfare, aggression will not come in the traditional army against army form.

It is very likely that the aggression, at least initially, be given by what has been catalogued as the “ISIS” of South America. It will be the Colombian paramilitaries operating on the border, the U.S.’s armed wing in the region. Only this time it will have the full logistical and military support of Washington and the support of Colombia on the ground.

The second action is the comprehensive protection of the combined operation between Venezuela and the nations of Russia and China. These first weeks of September will be critical, as U.S. and NATO military assets are deployed along Colombia’s borders. The work of intelligence and prevention is fundamental.

The initiative to build water wells’ by the United States, in an area as sensitive as the Guajira, could be the public relations front to conceal the installation of electronic warfare weapons with the intention of causing serious incidents during Venezuela’s combined operation, especially in aircraft or missile tests. It is reasonable to think that electronic interference with the use of E3 AWACS satellites and aircraft could be planned in order to discredit this operation in the eyes of the international public.

Just as the nuclear bomb protects North Korea from being wiped out by NATO, the alliance with Russia and China guarantees Venezuela that it will not suffer the same fate as Libya, Iraq and Yemen.  For the United States, delegitimizing Russia in South America is a major task.

The third action is to ensure internal cohesion.

A few days ago, websites linked to the Venezuelan opposition reported that “anonymous groups” launched pamphlets with messages alluding to upcoming destabilization operations against the government of Nicolás Maduro.

However, in a country where the opposition leadership is completely fragmented, what worries everyone the most is the economy. Despite the fact that the national government has signed price agreements with Venezuelan businessmen, a new stage of food shortages have begun to show up in some areas, especially in the area of meat, something that seemed to have been overcome.

Providing a climate of trust and stability to its own population is vital for the Venezuelan government to be able to face an external threat that is increasingly showing signs of becoming a reality.

At least that’s what Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of the influential media outlet Americas Quarterly thinks:

A friend of mine with high-level contacts in Washington DC recently told me ‘I’m afraid they’re going to do something crazy.”

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Venezuelanalysis editorial staff.